Larijani’s death removes key pillar of regime. Will it be enough to make Iran collapse ????

Iran confirmed on Tuesday that Israel had overnight assassinated Ali Larijani, one of the most important Iranian officials who had survived the US-Israeli strikes thus far.

Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, was the regime’s key figure after the assassination of supreme leader Ali Khamenei by Israel on February 28. He was Khamenei’s handpicked deputy, and many viewed him as the de facto leader of the Islamic Republic following Khamenei’s death.

Khamenei “saw Larijani as the man who would inherit the Islamic Revolution and continue it,” said  Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. “And that obviously has been seriously disrupted.”

An establishment insider who hailed from one of the country’s leading clerical families, Larijani had been tasked with taking the lead on Iran’s most pressing issues. He oversaw Iran’s efforts to reach a nuclear deal with the United States, and is widely believed to have personally directed the deadly crackdown on anti-government protests in January.

“Larijani was one of the first Iranian leaders to call for violence in response to the legitimate demands of the Iranian people,” said the US Treasury as it announced sanctions against him.

A former member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Larijani served as chief nuclear negotiator from 2005 to 2007, defending what Tehran says is its right to enrich uranium. He once described European incentives to abandon nuclear fuel production as “exchanging a pearl for a candy bar.”

In 2005, he headed the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) for the first time.

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday accused him of masterminding the kidnapping and killing of IDF soldiers in 2006 that sparked the Second Lebanon War. “That morning he took a flight out of Lebanon,” said Herzog. “He was there as head of the national security council of Iran — he came to plan with [Hassan] Nasrallah this operation, to give him the okay.”

Larijani was speaker of the parliament from 2008 to 2020, during which time Iran negotiated and signed a nuclear deal with the US and five other powers in 2015.

He also ran unsuccessfully for president in 2005. He later sought to contest the 2021 and 2024 presidential elections but was barred both times by the Guardian Council, which cited issues including lifestyle standards and family ties abroad.

Larijani was appointed last August as secretary of the SNSC once again, following the 12-day air war between Iran and Israel that the US joined.

Khamenei, to whom Larijani had always shown loyalty, sent him last month to Oman to prepare for indirect nuclear talks with the US. He also made several trips to key ally Moscow in recent months to discuss a range of security issues.

“His status and influence extended far beyond any formal position he had,” said Meir Ben-Shabbat, once Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser and now head of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy.

Since Khamenei’s death, said Ben-Shabbat, Larijani “managed the fight against Israel and served as the chief coordinator of Iran’s security bodies.”

‘Unprecedented crisis’

The pressing question now is what practical effect Larijani’s assassination will have on the Islamic Republic’s ability to continue mounting a coherent military response to the US-Israeli aerial onslaught, and potentially on its very survival.

Before Larijani’s death, dozens of other senior Iranian officials had been killed in 18 days of bombing, including head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Basij Force, Gholamreza Soleimani, who died in a separate strike Monday night.

The strikes, said Ben-Shabbat, “continue the process of severing and dismantling the chain of ideological, political, and operational command and control of the Iranian regime, placing it in an unprecedented crisis.”

Right now, it’s not at all clear who’s running things. Khamenei’s son Mojtaba was selected as Iran’s third supreme leader, but he is believed to have been injured in the airstrike that killed his father, and hasn’t been seen since.

That doesn’t automatically equal the end of the regime. Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah have both suffered a series of Israeli decapitation strikes and operations, and are both still functioning.

But they didn’t have to contend with an angry populace that wants to tear down their regime.

Larijani’s death, said Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, “has to hearten the Iranian people, and encourage them more at some point to rise up again against the regime.”

Netanyahu is looking to take advantage of the strike immediately. In an English-language message to the Iranian people on Tuesday night, he urged them to “celebrate the Festival of Fire.”

The holiday of Chaharshanbe Suri, marked on Tuesday evening and seen by the Islamic Republic as pagan though it’s of Zoroastrian origin, often features anti-regime protests. “Celebrate and Happy Nowruz,” said Netanyahu, reassuring Iran’s people that “we’re watching from above.”

“The culling of the top leaders is absolutely going to have an impact on the way the Iranian people view what happens next,” said Schanzer.

No one knows exactly what the next stage of the war will bring, and whether the killing of Larijani will be enough to get Iranian protesters back out onto the streets.

Even if it isn’t, Israel’s ability to locate the most important figure in the Iranian regime 18 days into war is evidence of how deeply its intelligence has penetrated the most sensitive reaches of the Islamic Republic. There are — it appears — more surprises from Israel on the way.

Israel strikes major Iranian gas field; Tehran vows to hit Gulf energy sites !!!!

The Israeli Air Force struck Iranian gas infrastructure in the country’s south on Wednesday, in a coordinated effort with the United States that experts warned would send ripples through the global economy and further expand the regional conflagration.

The strikes, launched on the 18th day of the US-Israeli offensive against the Iranian regime, targeted Iran’s massive offshore South Pars natural gas field, located in the Bushehr Province. Iranian state media reported additional strikes targeting oil facilities in Asaluyeh.

The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the strikes on the gas facility, but an Israeli official confirmed the strike was carried out by the IAF.

It marked the first time that Israel attacked natural gas facilities in Iran during the ongoing campaign, after the US struck the Islamic Republic’s oil export hub on Kharg Island over the weekend, although it said it hit only military sites on the island.

A US defense official confirmed to the Axios news site that the South Pars strike was coordinated with and approved by Washington. However, Gulf nations, which were likely to bear the brunt of any Iranian retaliation, slammed the move as “dangerous and irresponsible.”

Iran’s Fars news agency reported that gas tanks and parts of a refinery had been hit, workers had been evacuated to a safe location and emergency crews were trying to put out a fire. State media later said the fire was under control.

Iran warned that it would retaliate by targeting energy installations across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, whose own North Field gas field is connected to South Pars.

It specifically threatened Saudi Arabia’s Samref Refinery and its Jubail Petrochemical Complex. It also threatened the UAE’s Al Hasan Gas Field and the petrochemical plants and a refinery in Qatar.

A source familiar with the matter later told Reuters that Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG installations were being evacuated as a precaution.

Knock-on effect felt abroad

The impact of the strikes was felt immediately, both in the region and beyond, as gas imports to neighboring Iraq were halted, and the price of Brent crude oil jumped to just shy of $110 a barrel, around a six percent increase in price.

The price of crude oil had already skyrocketed since February 28, as Tehran shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of oil and liquefied natural gas is normally shipped past its coast, but consuming nations have hoped the disruption will be short-lived as long as production infrastructure is spared.

Iran’s offshore South Pars gas field makes up around a third of the world’s largest reservoir of natural gas, and the country’s gas production totalled 276 billion cubic meters in 2024, with 94% consumed in Iran, according to data by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.

Sanctions and technical constraints have meant that most of the gas Tehran produces from South Pars is for domestic use, although a portion is also exported across the border to Iraq, which is highly dependent on it. Around 30% to 40% of Iraq’s gas and power needs are supplied by Tehran.

Following the attack, however, Iran diverted its gas domestically, halting the flow to Iraq. Iraqi authorities said they were expecting a knock-on effect on power supplies there.

“Depending on the damage to the South Pars, it will likely affect Iran’s ability to send gas to power electricity plants domestically and domestic energy supplies for gas processing,” explained Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, to The Times of Israel.

“Iran has promised to retaliate mostly on petrochemical facilities and refineries in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia,” she said, in what would be “one step further to disruption of global energy markets,” this time focused “less on crude transit and more on refined products.”

“Iran does not export LNG [liquified natural gas], rather it exports gas through pipelines to neighboring countries,” she explained. “So, if there is a disruption to domestic supply, it could shift to stop exports to Turkey and Iraq.”

Turkey, unlike Iraq, did not immediately acknowledge any changes to its gas imports from Iran.

Iraq’s state news agency said later on Wednesday that the country’s state oil company SOMO had signed contracts with international carriers and buyers to export crude oil via Turkey, Jordan and Syria.

The regional response to the Israeli strikes was not a warm one, as the Gulf states found themselves once again in the line of fire as Iran warned it would retaliate by striking their own gas facilities.

Dangerous and irresponsible

Qatar, in a statement published by foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari on X, panned Israel for the “dangerous and irresponsible” action.

As a close US ally and host to the largest US airbase in the region, Qatar blamed the attack on Israel without mentioning any US role.

“The Israeli targeting of facilities linked to Iran’s South Pars field, an extension of Qatar’s North Field, is a dangerous & irresponsible step amid the current military escalation in the region,” he wrote.

“Targeting energy infrastructure constitutes a threat to global energy security, as well as to the peoples of the region & its environment,” he continued, calling on all sides not to target “vital facilities.”

The UAE, like Doha, noted that Iran’s South Pars field is connected to Qatar’s North Field, and warned that the strikes “represented a dangerous escalation.”

The targeting of energy facilities, it said, “entails serious environmental repercussions and directly endangers civilians.”

While neither Israel nor the US commented directly on the strike or took responsibility for it, a US official and a second source familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel that Jerusalem coordinated its strikes on the South Pars natural gas field with the US.

The source familiar with the matter said the US was aware of the attack ahead of time, but did not take part in it.

Channel 12 cited an unnamed official who said the goal of the attack was to communicate to Tehran that the longer it blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the worse it would be for Iran’s energy infrastructure.

“It was a signal to the Iranians about what might come next,” the official said.

Another official told Ynet that the strike was intended to increase domestic pressure on the regime by ramping up the anger against it.

“There will be power and gas outages,” the unnamed official predicted. “The regime will probably reduce the supply of gas to consumers, and from there, the pressure will increase.”

The official predicted that Iran would likely try to target Israeli national infrastructure in retaliation, on top of the Gulf facilities it has already threatened.

Strategic significance

Beyond the material damage feared by the Gulf states, experts warned that the consequences of the Israeli strike could be far-reaching and impact global markets.

“This could have strategic significance — even [marking] a turning point in the war — not because of the importance of this specific facility for Iran, significant as it may be, but because this is the first time gas facilities in Iran have been meaningfully struck,” explained Yoel Guzansky, a Gulf expert at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies.

“Iran is capable of, and may now choose to, target gas and oil facilities in the Gulf states,” he said. “This could escalate the war to a new level, severely impacting international markets and the ability of Gulf states to export oil and gas.”

This, in turn, he predicted, could “trigger a further response from the United States and Israel, potentially including strikes on even more significant Iranian oil infrastructure — chief among them Kharg Island.”

Trump has already threatened to carry out additional strikes on Kharg Island “just for fun,” after the US struck military targets on the oil export hub on Saturday.

“This could mark a very dangerous escalation [in] the war,” Guzansky said.

Hinting at the potential for this scenario to play out, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qhalibaf warned on X on Wednesday evening that Tehran would be seeking “an eye for an eye.”

“A new level of confrontation has begun,” he added.

PERNYATAAN PRESIDEN DONALD J TRUMP !!!!

Beberapa saat yang lalu, sesuai arahan saya, Komando Pusat Amerika Serikat mengeksekusi salah satu serangan bom paling kuat dalam Sejarah Timur Tengah, dan benar-benar melenyapkan setiap target Militer di permata mahkota Iran, Pulau Kharg. Senjata kami adalah yang paling kuat dan canggih yang pernah diketahui dunia tetapi, untuk alasan kesopanan, saya telah memilih untuk TIDAK menghapus infrastruktur minyak di pulau ini. Namun, jika Iran, atau siapa pun, melakukan apa pun untuk mengganggu Jalur Kapal yang Bebas dan Aman melalui Selat Hormuz, saya akan segera mempertimbangkan kembali keputusan ini. Selama masa jabatan pertamaku, dan saat ini, aku membangun kembali militer kita menjadi kekuatan yang paling lethal, kuat, dan efektif, sejauh ini, di mana pun di dunia. Iran TIDAK memiliki kemampuan untuk mempertahankan apa pun yang ingin kita serang — Tidak ada yang bisa mereka lakukan tentang hal itu! Iran TIDAK akan pernah memiliki senjata nuklir, juga tidak akan memiliki kemampuan untuk mengancam Amerika Serikat, Timur Tengah atau, dalam hal ini, Dunia! Militer Iran, dan semua yang terlibat dengan rezim teroris ini, akan bijaksana untuk meletakkan senjata mereka, dan menyelamatkan apa yang tersisa dari negara mereka, yang tidak banyak! Terima kasih atas perhatian Anda terhadap hal ini. Presiden DONALD J. TRUMP